The calm before the storm ? – Bitcoin manages to keep the psychological round number of $40,000 for the moment and Ethereum manages to keep $3,000. As we see in particular with the institutional actor Luna Foundation Guard which has acquired more than 40,000 bitcoins, the demand is present. The demand is present, of course, but this does not allow Bitcoin to get out of this zone for the moment. tidy between $45,000 and $35,000. Since Bitcoin is highly correlated to US equities (especially so-called “tech” companies), it seems very important to analyze certain US equities. Let’s go for a new edition of Point Macro Hebdo!
Bitcoin is stagnating but players are accumulating?
Last week, when I was writing the last Point Macro Hebdo, Bitcoin was at $40,000. He is currently around $41,000. Bitcoin does not show a clear direction. However, it would seem that some actors are in the process ofaccumulate Bitcoin:
The graph shows that there are many bitcoins that are removed from exchanges (red). Significant levels, close to the drawdowns of March 2020 during the Covid crash. Indeed, institutional players have reservations such as the Luna Foundation Guard, which recently acquired nearly 42,000 BTC. To compare, Microstrategy possesses 130,000 BTC.
This strong demand should, sooner or later bear fruit but at the moment Bitcoin is struggling to show strength. The smart money is it accumulating for an upcoming rally?
We saw it last weekBitcoin is highly correlated to US equities. The US market must recover or Bitcoin manages to separate from this correlation.
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All is well for safe-haven assets
Resistance for the Dollar Index (DXY):
The dollar index experienced a steep climb these last months. The DXY is now at a strong resistance at $100. If the index manages to use this resistance as support, equities and risky assets in general may skate for a while longer. The index would have to weaken for risky assets to be able to express themselves again.
the momentum not weakening for the moment. A divergence could form on the RSI but this is not yet the case.
Gold going up again?
The gold remains bullish and shows strength in the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement). Buyers appear to be defending the level at $1,900. It is likely that gold could afford a new all-time high in the weeks or months to come. In the event of a new historical high, the objective according to the Fibonacci extensions, is to $2,690.
the momentum is always to the benefit of buyers. We see it, the ROI rebounded well on the zone of neutrality a sign that buyers are in control of the current momentum.
The gold seems strong and maybe it’s his time to increase in value. For this, it will be necessary to establish a new all-time high. Is Bitcoin able to perform while gold also performs? Hard to say, but until proven otherwise, Bitcoin is considered a risky asset.
S&P 500 Defends Support
As we mentioned last week, the S&P 500 has lost the first stop. Following this, he headed for the reloading area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement). It would seem that buyers are defending this support at 4,400 about. We will wait for the development of a bullish structure in contact with this support to affirm that the support is forbidden.
the momentum is potentially breaking a bullish trendline. To show that the buyers are indeed present, the selling force will have to make it possible to regain the upper zone of the RSI (50
With bitcoin being highly correlated to US equities, we would like to see equities regain some buying strength.
Coinbase is still digging…
The Weekly Macro points are linked and one element does not change: Coinbase. The action is always very weak graphically:
Since the breakout of support at $215 about, sellers have the hand on this asset and the buyers can no longer defend. The action is recent since it was listed in April 2021, but for the moment, no support not built. The fact that institutional players are completely uninterested in Coinbase shows that the cryptocurrency sector is not yet in demand.
the momentum of this asset is in the hands of the sellers. The zone of neutrality even seems to do resistance.
Mara Digital Holdings and Riot Blockchain back on support
These are two other actions related to cryptocurrencies. For the moment, it will still be necessary defend support for buyers:
One more time, the support will have to be defended by buyers. It is a solid support, of course, but by dint of testing it, it is weakening. We will have to be attentive to what will happen for these two assets linked to cryptocurrencies.
Gold is still bullish and could go for a new all-time high in the coming weeks. Safe-haven assets are still very strong even though the dollar index is currently at resistance. Will the resistance be enough to calm the rise of the dollar? Bitcoin, on the other hand, is stagnating as stocks need to regain buying strength. At best, BTC needs to break away from its correlation to US equities. Otherwise, we will have to wait for movement on the side of US equities. L’open interest, which measures the number of open positions keeps increasing. This is very often the sign of high volatility to come…
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